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Dr Muhammad Afzal

Lecturer (Ecology and Hydrology)
School of Natural Sciences

Afzal teaches a wide range of subjects, with a particular interest in hydro-climatology and water resources management. Before joining the current role, Afzal was based and Cardiff University and UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Wallingford Oxfordshire where he worked as a hydrological modeller and water resources management scientist. Afzal supervises postgraduate projects in the area of hydro-climatology using modelling approach, water resources management in agriculture using crop modelling approach and climate change adaptations in different sectors.

Afzal has a wide range of working experience in the area of hydro-climatology and he has published over a dozen research articles in the area of hydrology, water and climate change, agricultural water management, and climatology.
Published Journal articles

1. Afzal, M. & Ragab, R. (In Press), European Water Journal, Impacts of the future climate and land use changes on the hydrology and water resources: Moldelling study of the Pang catchment in England, UK. 2. Afzal, M. & Ragab, R. (In press), Applied Water Science Journal, Assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology at catchment scale: Modelling approach including prediction of future drought events using drought indices.
3. Ragab, R., Kaelin, A., Afzal, M. and Panagea, I (2020) Hydrological Sciences Journal, Application of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) at different temporal scales to reduce the uncertainty level in modelled river flow.
4. Afzal, M., Nikolas, V. and Ragab, R (2020), journal of Water and Climate Change “Modelling study to quantify the impact of future climate and land use changes on water resources availability at catchment scale”.
5. Afzal M. and Ragab (2020), Journal of ICID Water Resources and Agronomy, How do climate and land use changes affect the water cycle? Modelling study including future drought events prediction using reliable drought indices. DOI:10.1002/ird.2467
6. Maria S., Afzal, M., Wilfried Hagg, Vassiliy Kapitsa, Elizabeth Mayr, Oleg Rybak, Zarina Saidaliyeva, Igor Severskiy, Zamira Usmanova, Andrew Wade, and Dauren Zhumabayev (2020) Water Journal: Special Issue Water Resources Management and Governance, Future projections of river discharge in five glacierized catchments in the northern Tien Shan, Central Asia developed for multiple climatic and glaciological scenarios.
7. Afzal M. and Ragab R (2019), Water Journal, Drought Risk under Climate and Land use Changes: Implication to Water Resource Availability at Catchment Scale, Water 2019, 11, 1790; doi:10.3390/w11091790
8. Christopher Schulz; Bronwen S Whitney; Onélia Carmem Rossetto; Danilo M Neves; Lauren Crabb; Emiliano Castro de Oliveira; Pedro Luiz Terra Lima; Afzal, M.; Anna Laing; Luciana C de Souza Fernandes; Charlei Aparecido da Silva; Valdir Adilson Steinke; Ercília Torres Steinke; Carlos Hiroo Saito, (2019), Science of the Total Environment, Physical, ecological and human dimensions of environmental change in Brazil's Pantanal wetland: Synthesis and research agenda.
9. Shahgedanova,M., Afzal M. Usmanova, Z. V. Kapitsa, E. Mayr, W. Hagg, I. Severskiy, D. Zhumabayev, Journal of hydrology, (2018), Changes in the mountain river discharge in the northern Tien Shan since the mid-20th Century: Results from the analysis of a homogeneous daily streamflow data set from seven catchments.
10. Afzal, M., Battilani, A, Solimando D. and Ragab, R. (2016), Journal of Agricultural Management, “Agricultural Water Resources management using different irrigation strategies and water qualities: field and modelling study. DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2016.05.005
11. Afzal, M., Gagnon, A. and M, Mansell (2016), Journal of Water and Climate Change, The impact of the variability and periodicity of rainfall on surface water supply systems in Scotland, DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2015.136.
12. Afzal, M., Gagnon, A. and M, Mansell, (2015), Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Changes in the variability and periodicity of precipitation in Scotland, DOI, 10.1007/s00704-014-1094-2 Vol 111, pages 135-159. 13. Afzal, M., Gagnon, A. and M, Mansell, (2015), 15 (4) 736-745; Water Science and Technology: Water Supply Journal, DOI: 10.2166/ws.2015.027.

After completing his PhD on "Changes in climate variability in Scotland and its effect on the reliability of water supply systems" in Scotland, Afzal joined UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Wallingford where he worked for a year on "EUWater4crops" and NERC "Drought Risk and You" projects. In September 2015, Afzal joined the University of Reading as a post-doctorate research fellow where he worked on the Newton Fund project " Climate Change, Water Resources and Food Security in Kazakhstan" for two years. The outcome of this research work was published in the Journal of Hydrology and Water journals. In September 2017, Afzal joined UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology as a hydrological modeller and water resources management scientist where he led five case study catchments research work. Six research articles were published from this work, two more articles are submission. In June 2019, Afzal joined Cardiff University where he led a module "Water in the environment" at undergraduate level and MSc module "Water in the geological systems" and also supervised a number of undergraduate and postgraduate research projects.

  • MSc Environmental Management, Glasgow Caledonian University, 2006
  • PhD Hydro-climatology, University of the West of Scotland, 2015
  • Hydro-climatology
  • Climate change adaptations in different sectors
  • IEMA and IWA